2008 Woodie Awards
What if... Seattle engulfed by powerful wave
Justin Lindborg, Columnist
Issue date: 11/14/06
Last Updated: 12/26/07
Next month, the world will remember the anniversary of one of the most catastrophic natural disasters of the century. The Indian Ocean tsunami of December 2004 caused 186,983 deaths. The sheer magnitude of this disaster has fostered concern for other areas prone to similar disaster. Here in Washington, the area most susceptible to a tsunami is Seattle. The Seattle fault line divides the city in two, crossing Elliott Bay and running just south of I-90. According to the Seattle Post every 2,500 years a seismic event results in a tsunami in the Seattle vicinity.
What if an 80-foot tsunami hit Seattle? Since the Indian Ocean tsunami, scientists' perspectives on the potential size of a tsunami have changed drastically. Rather than the previous assumption of 30-foot tsunamis, evidence from the Indian Ocean tsunami indicates that waves of 80 feet are possible as a result of a large earthquake. This drastically changes the scope of the potential danger to the Washington coast.
If an earthquake were to occur on the Seattle fault line, Seattle residents would have only approximately two minutes warning before a tsunami would hit. In that time, the water displaced by an earthquake of at least a magnitude of 7.3 would bounce off the north wall of the bay eastward, flooding several square miles of low-lands. The immediacy of this threat should be considered.
Two minutes is not enough time to stage a successful evacuation. Two minutes is only enough time to cause widespread panic before the low ground of Seattle is engulfed by water. If an unprepared populace were to be struck with such a sudden surge of water the effects would be devastating. The mere fact that there is a significantly dense population in the areas of risk causes the potential for human death to be significantly increased. The death-toll could be as high as a few thousand if the city were caught off-guard.
There appears to be only two recourses to remedy this problem. One way to avert such danger would be to upgrade the city's capability to detect an earthquake and thus give Seattleites more warning. The most modern tsunami-detecting technologies, however, are far from giving effective warning during the two-minute lapse between an earthquake and the resulting tsunami. It appears, then, that timely warning is a long way from becoming a reality.
The other, and more feasible, option would be to relocate those in danger areas to higher ground out of the reach of a tsunami. While some would be reluctant at first to abandon their homes, it would save many lives if such a catastrophe were to occur. Seattle's hills are out of reach of any foreseeable tsunami, and thus provide a refuge from such a threat. If those in Seattle's lowlands seriously consider the real risk of a tsunami occurring in Elliott Bay, they may be able to avoid the probable destruction with minimal inconvenience. The question is not if a tsunami could hit Seattle, but when.
What if an 80-foot tsunami hit Seattle? Since the Indian Ocean tsunami, scientists' perspectives on the potential size of a tsunami have changed drastically. Rather than the previous assumption of 30-foot tsunamis, evidence from the Indian Ocean tsunami indicates that waves of 80 feet are possible as a result of a large earthquake. This drastically changes the scope of the potential danger to the Washington coast.
If an earthquake were to occur on the Seattle fault line, Seattle residents would have only approximately two minutes warning before a tsunami would hit. In that time, the water displaced by an earthquake of at least a magnitude of 7.3 would bounce off the north wall of the bay eastward, flooding several square miles of low-lands. The immediacy of this threat should be considered.
Two minutes is not enough time to stage a successful evacuation. Two minutes is only enough time to cause widespread panic before the low ground of Seattle is engulfed by water. If an unprepared populace were to be struck with such a sudden surge of water the effects would be devastating. The mere fact that there is a significantly dense population in the areas of risk causes the potential for human death to be significantly increased. The death-toll could be as high as a few thousand if the city were caught off-guard.
There appears to be only two recourses to remedy this problem. One way to avert such danger would be to upgrade the city's capability to detect an earthquake and thus give Seattleites more warning. The most modern tsunami-detecting technologies, however, are far from giving effective warning during the two-minute lapse between an earthquake and the resulting tsunami. It appears, then, that timely warning is a long way from becoming a reality.
The other, and more feasible, option would be to relocate those in danger areas to higher ground out of the reach of a tsunami. While some would be reluctant at first to abandon their homes, it would save many lives if such a catastrophe were to occur. Seattle's hills are out of reach of any foreseeable tsunami, and thus provide a refuge from such a threat. If those in Seattle's lowlands seriously consider the real risk of a tsunami occurring in Elliott Bay, they may be able to avoid the probable destruction with minimal inconvenience. The question is not if a tsunami could hit Seattle, but when.
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